Research note / early exploration
Which outcome measures and prediction tools could serve both people and nature?
Power, with care.
Documented thinking
Predictions, judgment and the whole
Futarchy is the intended governance direction: informing decisions through predictions of their outcomes. No prediction market, operating model or token-profit-only measure is selected. The question is what helps people and the living world thrive.
AI would help analyse evidence, model consequences, identify conflicts and track outcomes for people and nature. Futarchy would use predictions to inform decisions; practical mechanics remain open. Everyday decisions stay practical, while major decisions receive deeper analysis. Responsible people decide, explain their reasoning and learn from results; AI is not granted binding authority. AI, elders or a combination may help resolve cross-domain disagreements; detailed authority remains open.
A proposed decision example
Should we build 20 more homes near the stream?
EVIDENCE: water · habitat · access · housing need · cost
CONFLICTS: who owns nearby land? who benefits financially?
Open questions
Which outcomes serve people and nature?
Can forecast tools inform without replacing accountable human decisions?